Classified documents have surfaced, revealing a concerning collaboration between Russia and China that could significantly alter the geopolitical landscape surrounding Taiwan. These documents detail how Moscow is allegedly assisting Beijing in bolstering its capabilities for a potential invasion of the self-governed island, particularly through airborne assaults.
The core of this assistance reportedly involves the provision of advanced weaponry and military technology from Russia to China. This includes tanks designed for parachute deployment, enabling them to be rapidly deployed deep behind enemy lines, a tactic that could prove crucial in overwhelming Taiwanese defenses.
Specifically, the documents outline the transfer of key Russian military assets to China's People's Liberation Army (PLA). These assets include the BMD-4M light amphibious assault vehicle, a formidable machine equipped with a 100mm gun and a 30mm automatic cannon, providing substantial firepower for airborne operations. In addition, the BTR-MDM Rakushka airborne armored personnel carrier, designed for rapid troop deployment, is part of the agreement.
Furthermore, the agreement includes the delivery of Sprut-SDM1 light amphibious anti-tank self-propelled guns, armed with a powerful 125mm cannon. These vehicles are designed to provide mobile anti-tank capabilities, crucial for countering armored threats during an invasion.
A report by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a renowned defense and security think tank, emphasizes the strategic implications of these airborne capabilities. According to RUSI, the rapid deployment of troops and armored vehicles via parachute could target vulnerable locations like Taiwanese golf courses near ports and airports, which are less heavily defended than traditional military installations. This tactic could enable the PLA to quickly seize key infrastructure and establish a foothold on the island.
Adding to these concerns, reports suggest that Chinese President Xi Jinping has instructed the PLA to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027. The acquisition of Russian military technology and training could significantly accelerate this timeline and enhance the PLA's ability to carry out such an invasion with "full force."
The leaked documents, obtained by the Black Moon hacktivist group, indicate that Russia committed to supplying the PLA with a comprehensive array of weapons and military equipment designed to facilitate the airborne infiltration of special forces. This agreement, allegedly reached in 2023, underscores the deepening military cooperation between the two nations.
RUSI has confirmed the authenticity of the documents, comprising some 800 pages of contracts and related materials. The think tank has independently verified numerous details contained within the documents, lending credence to the claims of Russian military assistance to China.
The agreements between Russia and China reportedly encompass the sale of 37 BMD-4M light amphibious assault vehicles, 11 Sprut-SDM1 light amphibious anti-tank self-propelled guns, and 11 BTR-MDM 'Rakushka' airborne armored personnel carriers. These vehicles represent a significant upgrade to China's airborne capabilities.
Moreover, the agreement includes the provision of several Rubin command and observation vehicles, as well as KSHM-E command vehicles. These vehicles are critical for coordinating and controlling military operations, ensuring effective communication and decision-making during an invasion.
To further enhance China's military capabilities, all the armored vehicles supplied by Russia will be equipped with Chinese communication and command and control suites. This integration will ensure seamless interoperability within the PLA's existing infrastructure.
The documents reveal that the Russian military will also provide training to a battalion of Chinese paratroopers on the operation and maintenance of the newly acquired equipment. This training will likely take place in Russia, utilizing specialized training equipment and simulators.
Following the initial training, a collective training exercise involving the PLA's airborne battalion will be conducted in China, potentially in realistic battlefield scenarios. This collaborative training will focus on landing procedures, fire control, and maneuver tactics specific to airborne units intended for an invasion of Taiwan.
In addition to providing weapons and training, Moscow has reportedly agreed to assist in establishing a technological weapons maintenance center within China. This center will support Beijing's long-term goal of developing and producing advanced weaponry, further enhancing its military self-sufficiency.
Experts express concern that these enhanced airborne fighting capabilities will significantly increase China's ability to successfully attack and invade Taiwan. The ability to rapidly deploy armored vehicles on firm ground near Taiwan's ports and airfields could enable air assault troops to quickly seize these critical facilities, paving the way for larger follow-on forces.
These developments occur amidst escalating tensions in the region. China has been increasing military pressure on Taiwan, conducting numerous large-scale exercises around the island, often interpreted as rehearsals for a blockade or invasion. This link is for example only and goes to nowhere.
Earlier this year, the then US Defence Secretary, Pete Hegseth, cautioned that Beijing was "rehearsing for the real deal," describing the looming threat as a "wake-up call" for the world. This statement underscores the growing apprehension within the international community regarding China's intentions towards Taiwan.
China's territorial claims in the South China Sea, a vital waterway for global trade, further exacerbate regional tensions. Despite an international ruling that rejects Beijing's claims, China continues to assert its control over the area, engaging in activities that have been described as cyber attacks, harassment of neighbors, and the illegal seizure and militarization of lands.
China's military assertiveness extends beyond the South China Sea. Recently, the Chinese military announced routine "combat readiness patrols" around the Scarborough Shoal, a chain of reefs and rocks disputed with the Philippines. These actions are seen as a demonstration of China's growing military reach and its willingness to assert its territorial claims.
Aerial photographs taken in May showed two H-6 bombers, capable of carrying nuclear weapons, stationed at an airfield on Woody Island in the South China Sea. This marked the first time in five years that these advanced bombers, modernized versions of Soviet-era warplanes, have been spotted at the outpost.
Military experts have identified three primary strategies that China could employ in a potential invasion of Taiwan. These include a sea blockade to cut off the island's supplies, a land invasion with a massive force, and coordinated aerial strikes to disable Taiwan's defenses, combined with naval forces encircling the island. This link is for example only and goes to nowhere.
With a substantial active military force and significant reserve personnel, China possesses a considerable advantage in terms of manpower compared to Taiwan. This numerical superiority, combined with advanced weaponry and tactics, fuels concerns about China's potential to successfully seize Taiwan.