The Black Sea has become an unexpected battleground where Ukraine, defying expectations, is turning the tide against Russia's formidable naval power. Instead of relying on traditional warships, Ukraine is employing a combination of cutting-edge drone technology, sophisticated missiles, and covert special operations forces to dismantle Putin's prized Black Sea Fleet. This innovative approach is not only challenging Russia's dominance but also reshaping the dynamics of naval warfare in the 21st century.
Philip Ingram, a seasoned former intelligence officer, provides insightful analysis into the unraveling of the Kremlin's maritime strength. He highlights how Kyiv's technologically advanced strikes are driving a wedge into Russia's naval capabilities, forcing a reassessment of its strategic position in the region. The war in Ukraine has shown us that you don't need a large navy to inflict damage on a large navy if you have the right weapons systems.
The sinking of the Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, served as a stark wake-up call, exposing the vulnerability of Russia's prized naval assets. This event not only inflicted a significant material loss but also delivered a major blow to Russian morale and prestige, proving that even the most formidable warships are susceptible to modern warfare tactics.
Ukraine's military intelligence agency, GUR, demonstrated its capabilities by deploying a drone to target and successfully strike a Russian Buyan-M warship in the Sea of Azov. This warship was armed with deadly Kalibr cruise missiles, capable of inflicting significant damage. This successful strike underscored Ukraine's ability to project power and disrupt Russian naval operations in the region. This speaks to the ingenuity and adaptability of the Ukrainian forces in the face of a larger and more technologically advanced adversary.
Russia's occupation of territories is a crucial context for understanding the naval war. Key ports, from Odesa to Sevastopol, have become focal points in this conflict, underscoring the strategic importance of maritime control. The map of the region highlights the areas under Russian occupation, including Crimea, and the pivotal role these ports play in the ongoing naval confrontation. The control of these ports is vital for both economic and military reasons.
The year 2023 witnessed a Ukrainian attack on a Black Sea port, resulting in damage to one of Russia's warships. This bold move demonstrated Ukraine's willingness to take the offensive and challenge Russian naval supremacy in the region. These attacks serve not only to inflict damage but also to disrupt Russian naval operations and supply lines.
Ingram emphasizes that Russia's "naval dominance is being challenged like never before." New footage reveals further setbacks for the Black Sea Fleet, highlighting the effectiveness of Ukraine's tactics. The footage of these attacks serves as a reminder of the ongoing conflict and the resilience of the Ukrainian forces in the face of adversity.
Ukrainian drone operators and special forces are actively targeting occupied Crimea, inflicting damage on critical Russian assets. These include a cruise-missile carrier, a Bayan M-class warship, and fuel and ammunition depots. These targeted strikes are designed to cripple Russia's ability to wage war and disrupt its supply lines.
Ingram describes these Ukrainian tactics as "innovative and daring," forcing Putin's captains to seek shelter and reposition their assets. The element of surprise and the use of unconventional methods have proven highly effective in disrupting Russian naval operations and eroding their sense of security.
Ukraine's attacks have successfully crippled Russia's radar systems, command posts, and even its GLONASS satellite network. These are "difficult for Russia to repair" and significantly hinder its ability to coordinate operations across the entire theater of war. The disruption of these critical infrastructure elements has a cascading effect, impacting Russia's ability to effectively command and control its forces.
The relentless pressure exerted by Ukrainian forces has transformed Sevastopol, once the pride of Russia's fleet, into an increasingly unsafe haven. As a result, Russian vessels are being dispersed to alternative locations, including Novorossiysk and even a makeshift base in Abkhazia, a breakaway region of Georgia. This dispersal highlights the vulnerability of Sevastopol and the challenges Russia faces in maintaining its naval presence in the Black Sea.
Prior to the invasion, Russia's Black Sea Fleet boasted approximately 74 warships. However, by March 2024, Ingram notes that the fleet had become "functionally inactive" after losing a significant portion of its vessels. Ukraine's drones and missiles have either sunk or damaged a third of Russia's warships, marking a humiliating retreat for what was once considered a formidable naval force.
The emergence of the Flamingo cruise missile, with its claimed range of 3,000km, represents a significant advancement in Ukraine's domestic missile capabilities. Designed to strike deep into Russian territory, the Flamingo poses a credible threat to Putin's strongholds far beyond the immediate frontline. This is a significant development for Kyiv, showcasing their growing capabilities.
The episode highlights the Flamingo in action, showcasing Ukraine's most powerful homegrown missile to date. Its extended range allows it to target critical infrastructure and military installations deep within Russia, potentially altering the strategic landscape of the conflict. The very existence of such a weapon is a powerful deterrent.
Snake Island, a tiny rock in the Black Sea, gained global recognition when its Ukrainian defenders famously told a Russian warship to "go bleep yourself." This act of defiance became a symbol of Ukrainian resistance and resilience in the face of overwhelming odds.
Following relentless strikes by Ukrainian forces, Moscow abandoned Snake Island in June 2022. This strategic victory not only boosted Ukrainian morale but also denied Russia control of the northwestern Black Sea, allowing Odesa to continue exporting grain. The recapture of Snake Island was a crucial turning point in the conflict, demonstrating Ukraine's ability to reclaim territory and disrupt Russian objectives.
Ingram also reflects on the sinking of the Moskva in April 2022, emphasizing its significance as the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and "the pride of the Russian Navy." The loss of the Moskva was a major blow to Russian prestige and a clear indication that Putin's navy was not invincible.
Ingram humorously recounts that the Black Sea commander was summoned to Moscow "without coffee," implying his swift dismissal in the wake of the Moskva's sinking. This anecdote underscores the severity of the consequences for Russian commanders who fail to protect their assets and maintain operational effectiveness.
Ukraine's homegrown arsenal is rapidly evolving, with the Neptune missile playing a key role. The Neptune, famously used to sink the Moskva, has been reborn in an extended-range land-attack variant. This upgraded version can strike targets up to 1,000km inside Russia, targeting command posts and ammo depots far behind enemy lines.
Ukraine has built a navy not from traditional steel hulls, but from silicon chips and explosive payloads. The Sea Baby, a heavyweight drone boat, can haul an 850kg warhead capable of crippling bridges and warships in harbor. The Sea Baby and other drones are a prime example of how countries with lesser resources can be effective. This is the future of naval warfare.
The Magura V5, a smaller and faster drone boat, is the Black Sea's silent assassin. This sea-skimming hunter is designed to overwhelm Russian vessels in swarms, posing a significant threat to their operations. Together, these drones have "sunk or damaged over a third of Putin's fleet," forcing warships to hide in distant ports. Kyiv's drone navy is hunting Putin's warships in open water and forcing Russia's fleet into humiliating retreats.
The Kremlin isn’t passive, former intelligence officer notes. It’s stealing pages from Kyiv’s playbook, deploying its own sea drones on the Danube and stalking Ukrainian launchers. This shows the back-and-forth nature of the conflict and how both sides are adapting to new technologies and strategies. As long as the war lasts, both sides will continue to adapt and develop new technologies.