In an era of shifting global dynamics, concerns are mounting over China's growing influence and its potential reshaping of the international order. Some analysts suggest that President Xi Jinping is orchestrating a comprehensive "grand strategy" to challenge the existing Western-dominated system, with the aim of establishing a new world order more favorable to China and its allies.
This strategy allegedly involves forging a powerful coalition of nations that share grievances with the West, seeking to "choke out and absorb" the power of the United States and its allies. The core of this strategy, according to some observers, lies in consolidating economic and military strength, while simultaneously cultivating diplomatic ties with countries across the globe that may feel marginalized or disillusioned by the current international system.
Dr. Arduino, a security analyst specializing in Chinese affairs, has closely scrutinized Beijing's recent activities, identifying what he believes are key indicators of Xi Jinping's strategic objectives. Two events, in particular, have raised concerns: a large-scale military parade held in Beijing and a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
The military parade, ostensibly held to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, served as a platform for China to showcase its rapidly advancing military capabilities. Notably, the parade drew the attendance of 26 foreign leaders, including prominent figures from countries that often find themselves at odds with the West. This display of diplomatic outreach highlighted China's growing influence and its ability to attract nations that may seek alternative partnerships outside of the traditional Western sphere.
Among the showcased military hardware was the Dongfeng-5C hypersonic missile, a behemoth capable of carrying multiple warheads and, according to China, reaching any point on the globe at speeds of up to Mach 22 (16,700 mph). This technological advancement, whether exaggerated or not, sends a clear message about China's growing military prowess and its willingness to project power on a global scale.
Dr. Arduino interprets this display of military might as a direct signal to the United States that China will not be easily intimidated or bullied. It underscores China's determination to assert its interests on the world stage and to challenge what it perceives as Western hegemony.
Furthermore, the SCO summit, a gathering of nations spanning from Central Asia to South Asia, is viewed as another crucial element in China's grand strategy. The SCO, which includes countries like India and Pakistan, serves as a counterweight to Western-led political and security blocs, such as NATO. By strengthening the SCO and promoting its expansion, China aims to create a more multipolar world where power is distributed more evenly among different actors.
Dr. Arduino emphasizes the interconnectedness of these events, arguing that they are not isolated incidents but rather carefully orchestrated steps in a long-term strategy. The military parade demonstrates China's growing confidence in its military capabilities, while the SCO summit provides a platform for aggregating countries that are skeptical of Western influence. Together, these initiatives contribute to the construction of an alternative global order, one where China plays a more prominent role.
China's approach is not characterized by direct confrontation, but rather by a gradual process of encirclement and absorption. This strategy, inspired by the Chinese board game Xiangqi (also known as Chinese chess), emphasizes the importance of building alliances and gradually weakening the opponent, rather than engaging in head-on clashes. Over the past decade and a half, China has been diligently laying the groundwork for this strategy, cultivating relationships with countries around the world and building up its economic and military strength.
China's network of allies spans continents, from Africa (Congo, Zimbabwe) to the Caribbean (Cuba). Through strategic investments and diplomatic outreach, China has forged close ties with dozens of Asian nations and has even cultivated relationships with European countries like Slovakia, Belarus, and Serbia, often through its alignment with Russia.
One particularly intriguing aspect of China's strategy is its relationship with India, a nation with whom it has a complex and often tense relationship, marked by a long-running border dispute. Despite these tensions, China has sought to engage with India, as evidenced by the meeting between Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Tianjin. While the details of their discussions remain largely private, the fact that such a meeting took place at all suggests a desire to manage tensions and explore potential areas of cooperation.
This meeting occurred amidst a backdrop of heightened military displays, which were meant to show the West that China is ready to lead the world in a new direction. A speech delivered by Xi during the parade contained a subtle warning, suggesting the world is at a crossroads between peace and war, and urging the world to seek peace.
Xi stated during the parade that the world must unequivocally oppose hegemonism and power politics, practice true multilateralism, and stand as a pillar in promoting a multipolar world and greater democracy in international relations. Experts believe that this sentiment is not only directed towards those outside of the West, but also an attempt to persuade those that they are in a volatile, unreliable situation that China can fix.
Putin echoed this sentiment when asked about the future of global power laying in the West or the East, stating that it will soon be a "multipolar" world. This is largely because Beijing believes that they can exploit the "fundamental lack of confidence" in the West and Europe through their plan, according to Dr. Arduino. The seeds of that lack of confidence were sown through the invasion of Ukraine.
This invasion caused a strain between the United States and their NATO allies, especially considering the public fallouts that Donald Trump had with the same allies, and his open approach towards Putin. Due to this infighting between global superpowers, Europe has created its own Coalition of the Willing group, absent of the United States. These internal disputes have helped China grow in strength quietly.
Analysts who study body language have tried to discern which one of the three leaders, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong-un, really holds power. They have pointed to the interactions between the three leaders during the parade, citing Xi Jinping as the individual in control.
Darren Stanton, a body language specialist, noted that the entire event was very well-managed by President Xi, who was performing an assertion of power. Echoing this assessment, fellow expert Judi James confirmed that it was clear that Xi was in charge due to standing at the front of the "political power throuple."
Amidst these displays of power and shifting alliances, it is crucial to note that the current international system is not monolithic. Different nations hold diverse perspectives and interests, and some may genuinely seek alternative partnerships outside of the traditional Western framework. China's rise presents both opportunities and challenges for the global community. It remains to be seen whether its pursuit of a "new world order" will lead to greater stability and cooperation or further fragmentation and conflict.
As China continues to flex its economic and military muscles, the West, particularly the United States, faces a critical juncture. It must carefully assess China's long-term goals and devise a strategy that balances competition with cooperation. This requires strengthening alliances, addressing internal divisions, and promoting a more inclusive and equitable global order that benefits all nations, not just a select few.
The parade was a perfectly choreographed piece of pantomime that was directed at the West, with his main guest being Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin. He towered over them, and sat on top of this new global mafia as their Godfather. Kim's kingdom has always been dependant on China, and Moscow now locked in a war it can't win, needs China more than ever.
These are the things that lead experts to believe that it will only be a matter of time before Xi decides it is time to truly test the West. It will be crucial to continue following the path that China is taking, and the steps that the West must take in return.